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Cake day: May 19th, 2024

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  • I’m going to keep shouting this from the rootops until people get it throigh their skulls: TURNOUT WAS NOT THE ISSUE. Ignoring that people haven’t updated the totals in their head since the Friday after the election, turnout was only down in uncompetitive states. Across the 8-10 swing states turnout was up. More people voted where it mattered most compared to 2020. Find a better explanation because this isn’t it.



  • This is my take away too. The top of the ticket underperformed relative to the rest. In Pennsylvania Harris lost by 2 point, but Casey only seems to be down half a point for retaining his senate seat and that is headed for recount. The Pa state house held its single seat democratic majority.

    The only explanation that seems reasonable to me is that the election hinged on the large center of mostly low information voters deciding that Trump bringing the circus back to Washington was less bad than their grocery bill(I am NOT saying they are correct to blame the current administration, just that they are).

    tl;dr [that Carville quote]




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